Previous Issues | AfSol Journal

Oil in the ‘Mix’ of Insurgency: Unmasking the Resurgence of Boko Haram Attacks in Nigeria’s Northeast

Nigeria’s mono-economic dependence on oil has been a paradox of an albatross on socio-economic growth and development, as the country grapples to secure a cure for its Dutch disease since the oil boom era of the 1970s. In inverting the dependency theory, as a conspiracy of the rich to make the poor dependent, this paper contends that the reverse is the case as the wealth of rich socio-political elites within the Nigerian context is solely dependent on the exploitation of the less developed oil bearing communities within an impoverished population. These communities perpetually live under hazardous ecological conditions in spite of their resources upon which the Nigerian state is dependent. It posits that the Boko Haram insurgency is an offshoot of this paradox while exploring the emerging dynamics of the oil factor amidst the resurgence of attacks in the Northeast. It thus advocates the need to rehumanize the Nigerian populace through Amartya Sen’s human capabilities’ approach, whereby socio-economic conditions are addressed through structural and institutional changes amidst a socially and environmentally responsible population.

Controlling Transnational Organized Crimes (TOCs) in Ethiopia: Issues, Challenges and Opportunities

This article explores the challenges and opportunities of the counterstrategies to addressing transnational organized crime (TOC) as a security issue in Ethiopia. The study on which this article is based was motivated by two main questions: first, what are the factors that underlie TOC in Ethiopia? Second, what are the challenges of, and limitations to, Ethiopia’s counterstrategies against TOC? The goal of this study was to identify the factors that foster transnational organized crime in Ethiopia, and provide a research-based theoretical and practical explanation about the approaches Ethiopia should follow to tackle the problem of TOC. The study was dependent on secondary sources of data, and identified various counterstrategies on TOC including a Law and Order Approach, Enterprise Approach, Development Approach, Security Approach, Administrative Approach and Integrated Approach. The article presents a theoretical explanation of the counterstrategies against TOC based on theories of change. Accordingly, legislative gaps, lack of a national guiding strategic document on TOC, weak institutional cooperation, the complexity of investigating and prosecuting TOC, corruption in the public sector, and convergence of terrorism with TOC, have been identified as the major challenges of addressing TOC in Ethiopia. On the other hand, enhanced mutual legal assistance and extradition processes, expanding the presence of Ethiopian law enforcement agents abroad, collaboration with INTERPOL, and rigorous legislative reform as regards TOC have been elaborated as the main opportunities for dealing with this crime in Ethiopia.

Acknowledging Conflict across Mali’s Centre: Drivers and History

As this paper is written (July 2018) the violence in the central regions of Mali is increasing in intensity. The availability of modern small arms is destabilizing the sub-region as local belligerents engage in inter-community and intra-community violence. The conflict in the central regions since 2014 is not merely an extension of the civil war in the northern regions, but rather the instigating factors are based in historical events specific to the Centre: a history of conservative Islam, water and land scarcity resulting from climate change events, and liberalization of regional markets interact to drive conflict. We apply a multi-lens framework: the ‘New Wars’, new types of war, and a plural security perspective to analyze the threats and their drivers as they manifest in the central regions of Mali. We conclude that the conflict in the centre is distinct from the larger conflict in the northern regions. Additionally, further research on the conflict and eventual peace process in the centre must centre on local historical and socio-political and economic dynamics. It is necessary to understand drivers of the conflict to create a lasting peace.

Policy Impacts on Africa’s Extractive Sector: Uganda, the Stagnation of Minerals, and the Promise of Oil

The East African country of Uganda has seen its growth increase steadily in the last decade. While minerals have stagnated, the continued presence of agriculture and the 2006 discovery of oil have given the country reason for economic optimism. Not yet tapped, Uganda expects to construct a pipeline and start extracting this oil within the next five years. The Ugandan government, led by President Yoweri Museveni, has promoted oil as the opportunity to industrialize the country. However, Uganda must improve on several facets to make this happen. Their fiscal regime needs improvement, as it is not internationally competitive and suffers from tax leakage. As for economic diversification, the government plans for a quasi-market approach to industrialize, but it will need to improve education before attracting investment. Value addition must also be created for their resource economy, especially in minerals. In terms of regional connections, Uganda should continue its involvement with the African Union and the East African Community. While the government promotes oil as the key to transforming Uganda into a middle-income, industrialized country this change will not occur unless the government changes the country’s prevailing policies. Museveni’s government must, for instance, improve their transparency, not muzzle civil society groups and let institutions build more capacity. Without structural changes to the government, oil will not lead to the envisioned development of Uganda.

Re-Invented Abroad: Agitation for Self-Determination by the Indigenous People of Biafra (Ipob) Movement in South-Eastern Nigeria

Fifty years since the declaration of separatist Biafra, the narrative still reverberates across Nigeria. This is common in the south-eastern region where pro-Biafra movements with claims to the principle of self-determination, continue to reinvent the idea of the hitherto aborted Biafra. Relying essentially on primary data, this paper examines the current neo-Biafran agitation within the organizational framework of the Indigenous People of Biafra (IPOB) movement. Findings reveal that IPOB is a scion of the Movement for the Actualization of Sovereign State of Biafra (MASSOB) and an initiative of Nigerians in the Diaspora; that the group amplifies her struggle using the media; that non-violence remains the official principle of the group; and that group cohesion is very strong within the movement. Furthermore, the perception of marginalization, exclusionary politics, cumulative injustice, a weak economy, politics of the memory as well as state repression are factors that strengthen the neo-Biafran agitation. The paper suggests that strategies of inclusion, re-orientation of the Nigerian citizens, de-militarization of the Nigerian public space, dialogue and redefining of the Nigerian political structure are means through which the neo-Biafran agitation could be effectively managed.

A Critical Analysis of the Requirements for Full Operationalization of the African Standby Force: Lessons Learned from the Eastern Africa Standby Force

It is evident from attempted coups d’état, contested elections, violent protests and riots, constitutional amendments to extend of terms of presidents, religious fundamentalism, terrorism, foreign interventions and other structural problems in Africa, which threaten the political equilibrium, that there are a various types of conflicts that need to be dealt with (See Institute for Security Studies, October 2017:10-21). This calls for a strengthened, enhanced and effective regional collective security arrangement. The African Union (AU) established the African Standby Force (ASF) for peacekeeping purposes as well as possible interventions when conflicts degenerate, and implement its motto of “African solutions to African problems”. This continental Force is being developed in five multi-dimensional regional brigades with military, police and civilian components but its operationalization took much longer than planned. The question is why? What are the hurdles? What needs to be done to fully operationalize it? This paper critically analyzes these issues and develops a ten-step procedure on what needs to be done to fully operationalize the ASF based on experience gained from the Eastern Africa Standby Force, one of the regional components, which declared full operational capability ahead of schedule in 2014.

Appeasing the Land: Local Peace Committees and the Legitimation of Traditional Peacemaking in Kenya

In the last decade, the Kenyan state, reacting mainly to the 2007/2008 post-election violence and cases of intergroup conflicts, created local peace committees and conferred on them the rights to address specific disputes and prevent conflicts at the local level. Local peace committees are (superficially) modelled after social institutions deemed traditional, and are therefore an attempt to standardize an aspect of customary law. This article explores the ethnography of local peace committees in Enoosupukia, a former hotspot of interethnic clashes in Kenya. It relies on ethnographic data collected between 2014 and 2015 to describe the composition of local peace committees, discusses conflict resolution at the grass-roots level, and highlights their effectiveness and the emerging constraints on their performance. Although necessary in the resolution of local disputes through arbitration, local peace committees constitute hybrid governance arrangements, which tend to produce different modes of authority, operations, and legitimacy, with the possibility of intensifying clashes between traditional (informal) rules and formal law.

Presidential Term Limits: A Threat to Peace and Security in Africa

This article interrogates the recent trend whereby some African leaders resort to constitutional amendments to remove presidential term limits. It seeks to identify the factors that explain why this pattern is gaining ground in a growing number of countries, and analyzes its implications for peace and security in Africa. Attention is paid to two countries: Burundi and Burkina Faso which recently grappled with the issue of term limits with different outcomes. The article holds that the extension of presidential term limits threatens long-term peace and security in Africa. It argues that such political acts encourage unconstitutional changes of government, undermine human security, and weaken democratic institutions—all of which are critical to peace and security.

The Rationale for AfSol in Peace and Security: The Global, National and Regional Precipitants

Since the establishment of the African Union in 2001, there has been a heightened activism for African Solutions (AfSol) in peace and security as opposed to the reality of external impositions and interventions. This article contends that while international factors play a role in Africa’s insecurities, the continent suffers largely from the ineptitude and myopic interests of Africa’s leadership at the state and regional levels. The clamour for AfSol by political leaders often serves to mask the complicity of local actors in Africa’s crises especially in peace and security. To ensure sustainable peace and stability on the continent, the AfSol concept should be underpinned with good governance and reliable attempts at context-specific solutions alongside mainstream development and security paradigms.

State Response to Violent Conflicts: An Assessment of the Nigerian State and the Indigenous People of Biafra (Ipob) Separationist Movement

Conflicts arising from separationist movements are gradually becoming a security threat and source of instability in Nigeria. This article examines the nature and impact of the activities of the Indigenous People of Biafra (IPOB), and the response of the Nigerian state. It is of the view that the response of the Nigerian security apparatus to separatist movements is more likely to exacerbate the crisis, rather than help resolve it.