Category: AfSol Publication

Oil in the ‘Mix’ of Insurgency: Unmasking the Resurgence of Boko Haram Attacks in Nigeria’s Northeast

Oil in the ‘Mix’ of Insurgency: Unmasking the Resurgence of Boko Haram Attacks in Nigeria’s Northeast

Posted by | Apr 6, 2019 |

Nigeria’s mono-economic dependence on oil has been a paradox of an albatross on socio-economic growth and development, as the country grapples to secure a cure for its Dutch disease since the oil boom era of the 1970s. In inverting the dependency theory, as a conspiracy of the rich to make the poor dependent, this paper contends that the reverse is the case as the wealth of rich socio-political elites within the Nigerian context is solely dependent on the exploitation of the less developed oil bearing communities within an impoverished population. These communities perpetually live under hazardous ecological conditions in spite of their resources upon which the Nigerian state is dependent. It posits that the Boko Haram insurgency is an offshoot of this paradox while exploring the emerging dynamics of the oil factor amidst the resurgence of attacks in the Northeast. It thus advocates the need to rehumanize the Nigerian populace through Amartya Sen’s human capabilities’ approach, whereby socio-economic conditions are addressed through structural and institutional changes amidst a socially and environmentally responsible population.

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Controlling Transnational Organized Crimes (TOCs) in Ethiopia: Issues, Challenges and Opportunities

Controlling Transnational Organized Crimes (TOCs) in Ethiopia: Issues, Challenges and Opportunities

Posted by | Apr 6, 2019 |

This article explores the challenges and opportunities of the counterstrategies to addressing transnational organized crime (TOC) as a security issue in Ethiopia. The study on which this article is based was motivated by two main questions: first, what are the factors that underlie TOC in Ethiopia? Second, what are the challenges of, and limitations to, Ethiopia’s counterstrategies against TOC? The goal of this study was to identify the factors that foster transnational organized crime in Ethiopia, and provide a research-based theoretical and practical explanation about the approaches Ethiopia should follow to tackle the problem of TOC. The study was dependent on secondary sources of data, and identified various counterstrategies on TOC including a Law and Order Approach, Enterprise Approach, Development Approach, Security Approach, Administrative Approach and Integrated Approach. The article presents a theoretical explanation of the counterstrategies against TOC based on theories of change. Accordingly, legislative gaps, lack of a national guiding strategic document on TOC, weak institutional cooperation, the complexity of investigating and prosecuting TOC, corruption in the public sector, and convergence of terrorism with TOC, have been identified as the major challenges of addressing TOC in Ethiopia. On the other hand, enhanced mutual legal assistance and extradition processes, expanding the presence of Ethiopian law enforcement agents abroad, collaboration with INTERPOL, and rigorous legislative reform as regards TOC have been elaborated as the main opportunities for dealing with this crime in Ethiopia.

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Acknowledging Conflict across Mali’s Centre: Drivers and History

Acknowledging Conflict across Mali’s Centre: Drivers and History

Posted by | Apr 6, 2019 |

As this paper is written (July 2018) the violence in the central regions of Mali is increasing in intensity. The availability of modern small arms is destabilizing the sub-region as local belligerents engage in inter-community and intra-community violence. The conflict in the central regions since 2014 is not merely an extension of the civil war in the northern regions, but rather the instigating factors are based in historical events specific to the Centre: a history of conservative Islam, water and land scarcity resulting from climate change events, and liberalization of regional markets interact to drive conflict. We apply a multi-lens framework: the ‘New Wars’, new types of war, and a plural security perspective to analyze the threats and their drivers as they manifest in the central regions of Mali. We conclude that the conflict in the centre is distinct from the larger conflict in the northern regions. Additionally, further research on the conflict and eventual peace process in the centre must centre on local historical and socio-political and economic dynamics. It is necessary to understand drivers of the conflict to create a lasting peace.

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Policy Impacts on Africa’s Extractive Sector: Uganda, the Stagnation of Minerals, and the Promise of Oil

Policy Impacts on Africa’s Extractive Sector: Uganda, the Stagnation of Minerals, and the Promise of Oil

Posted by | Apr 6, 2019 |

The East African country of Uganda has seen its growth increase steadily in the last decade. While minerals have stagnated, the continued presence of agriculture and the 2006 discovery of oil have given the country reason for economic optimism. Not yet tapped, Uganda expects to construct a pipeline and start extracting this oil within the next five years. The Ugandan government, led by President Yoweri Museveni, has promoted oil as the opportunity to industrialize the country. However, Uganda must improve on several facets to make this happen. Their fiscal regime needs improvement, as it is not internationally competitive and suffers from tax leakage. As for economic diversification, the government plans for a quasi-market approach to industrialize, but it will need to improve education before attracting investment. Value addition must also be created for their resource economy, especially in minerals. In terms of regional connections, Uganda should continue its involvement with the African Union and the East African Community. While the government promotes oil as the key to transforming Uganda into a middle-income, industrialized country this change will not occur unless the government changes the country’s prevailing policies. Museveni’s government must, for instance, improve their transparency, not muzzle civil society groups and let institutions build more capacity. Without structural changes to the government, oil will not lead to the envisioned development of Uganda.

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Re-Invented Abroad: Agitation for Self-Determination by the Indigenous People of Biafra (Ipob) Movement in South-Eastern Nigeria

Re-Invented Abroad: Agitation for Self-Determination by the Indigenous People of Biafra (Ipob) Movement in South-Eastern Nigeria

Posted by | Apr 6, 2019 |

Fifty years since the declaration of separatist Biafra, the narrative still reverberates across Nigeria. This is common in the south-eastern region where pro-Biafra movements with claims to the principle of self-determination, continue to reinvent the idea of the hitherto aborted Biafra. Relying essentially on primary data, this paper examines the current neo-Biafran agitation within the organizational framework of the Indigenous People of Biafra (IPOB) movement. Findings reveal that IPOB is a scion of the Movement for the Actualization of Sovereign State of Biafra (MASSOB) and an initiative of Nigerians in the Diaspora; that the group amplifies her struggle using the media; that non-violence remains the official principle of the group; and that group cohesion is very strong within the movement. Furthermore, the perception of marginalization, exclusionary politics, cumulative injustice, a weak economy, politics of the memory as well as state repression are factors that strengthen the neo-Biafran agitation. The paper suggests that strategies of inclusion, re-orientation of the Nigerian citizens, de-militarization of the Nigerian public space, dialogue and redefining of the Nigerian political structure are means through which the neo-Biafran agitation could be effectively managed.

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