Category: AfSol Publication

As this paper is written (July 2018) the violence in the central regions of Mali is increasing in intensity. The availability of modern small arms is destabilizing the sub-region as local belligerents engage in inter-community and intra-community violence. The conflict in the central regions since 2014 is not merely an extension of the civil war in the northern regions, but rather the instigating factors are based in historical events specific to the Centre: a history of conservative Islam, water and land scarcity resulting from climate change events, and liberalization of regional markets interact to drive conflict. We apply a multi-lens framework: the ‘New Wars’, new types of war, and a plural security perspective to analyze the threats and their drivers as they manifest in the central regions of Mali. We conclude that the conflict in the centre is distinct from the larger conflict in the northern regions. Additionally, further research on the conflict and eventual peace process in the centre must centre on local historical and socio-political and economic dynamics. It is necessary to understand drivers of the conflict to create a lasting peace.

The East African country of Uganda has seen its growth increase steadily in the last decade. While minerals have stagnated, the continued presence of agriculture and the 2006 discovery of oil have given the country reason for economic optimism. Not yet tapped, Uganda expects to construct a pipeline and start extracting this oil within the next five years. The Ugandan government, led by President Yoweri Museveni, has promoted oil as the opportunity to industrialize the country. However, Uganda must improve on several facets to make this happen. Their fiscal regime needs improvement, as it is not internationally competitive and suffers from tax leakage. As for economic diversification, the government plans for a quasi-market approach to industrialize, but it will need to improve education before attracting investment. Value addition must also be created for their resource economy, especially in minerals. In terms of regional connections, Uganda should continue its involvement with the African Union and the East African Community. While the government promotes oil as the key to transforming Uganda into a middle-income, industrialized country this change will not occur unless the government changes the country’s prevailing policies. Museveni’s government must, for instance, improve their transparency, not muzzle civil society groups and let institutions build more capacity. Without structural changes to the government, oil will not lead to the envisioned development of Uganda.